As of today, Pollster.com is assuming that Barack Obama will win 320 electoral college votes, including those from the states of Ohio and Florida. Obama is hovering around the 70’s in the Intrade Prediction Market. He is ahead in every national poll and has been for weeks now. With every debate, Obama’s chances only go up.
The Republicans have tried to trot out the slime — William Ayers, “he’ll fine you,” and other such lies and nastiness — but it has not had any effect (except perhaps to help Obama).
Democratic voter registration in every state has shot up to historic levels and the Obama ground campaign continues to astound even the most jaded of politicos. Obama has enough money to run campaigns in states that should be safe for McCain (Montana, Nebraska), thus keeping McCain on the defensive, limiting his impact in many of the battleground states.
Many people I talk to have predicted that even if there was a significant “October Surprise” (finding Osama bin Laden, a terrorist attack) that most voters will either see through it or continue to trend towards Obama in search of a steady hand.
More and more information is coming out about Sarah Palin and considering that her inclusion on the ticket was the only reason the polls very briefly went McCain’s way, her falling approval ratings (hovering around 40%) show that their supposedly best asset is becoming a huge liability.
And then there is the economic crisis. Perhaps Republicans thought that once the bail-out vote happened, we’d all forget how completely George W. Bush has destroyed our financial future. We’re not forgetting…we are still struggling with bills, gas prices and are disgusted with the continuing greed on Wall Street.
So, given all of that, I’m not sure what it could possibly take for Obama to lose. While some analysts have suggested that American’s won’t vote their racial prejudice, I’m thinking that many, many will. Despite this, will this be enough to threaten Obama’s chances, considering how many trends are going his way?
Is it over?